OKC TS% 67.6% vs LAL 61.3%. Q3: OKC 36, LAL 22 — LAL had won Q2 35-30 before the collapse. OKC bench: Mitchell 20 pts (66.3 TS%), McCain 18 pts (81.8 TS%) — 38 combined off the pine. SGA: 22 pts, 64.9 TS%. Holmgren: 22 pts, 9 reb, 4 stl, 78.1 TS%, +19. LAL turnovers: 21 total — OKC scored 26 off them. Ayton: 3 pts on 14.3 FG% — rim anchor neutralized vs Holmgren + Hartenstein. Reaves: 31 pts, 76.0 TS%, -20 net. LeBron: 23 pts, 58.2 TS%, -9 net. OKC ORtg 128.3 vs LAL ORtg 108.9.
What changed
Lakers — 0-2 down, DRtg 128.3, 21 turnovers structural not random. Ayton 14.3 FG% against Holmgren is the series storyline.
OKC — bench depth (48 pts) plus SGA/Holmgren efficiency makes this a mismatch. Series win probability: Bravsen model OKC 93%+ post-G2.
OKC advances to WCF vs SAS/MIN winner — Game 3 Sun May 10 at LAL. Bravsen model: OKC 77.3% (basis: bench gap, 21 LAL TOs, TS% diff, home-court +4.5 LAL adjustment).