Pistons Crushed Magic Game 7: 116-94 ECSF Bracket Lock

Detroit closed Orlando in front of its own crowd. The Pistons drilled 16/33 from three (48.5%), posted a 125.2 offensive rating against Orlando's 98.7, and won 116-94 in Game 7 on Sunday May 3 at Little Caesars Arena — eliminating the No. 8 seed 4-3 and clearing the Eastern Conference Semifinals path against No. 4 seed Cleveland starting Tuesday.

Trigger

DET 16/33 (48.5%) vs ORL 10/30 (33.3%)

three_point_pct

Impact

Bravsen Impact Score

Odds

50%

Probability movement

Confidence

High

Verdict confidence

Analysis

What moved

The second quarter ended the series. Detroit dropped 40 points to Orlando's 27 in the period, turning a 22-22 first-quarter game into a 60-49 halftime lead. The shooting profile was decisive: 51.2% from the field, 48.5% from three, and a 64.7% true shooting line against Orlando's 53.3%.

Cade Cunningham authored the close with 32 points, 12 assists, 10/18 from the floor, 4/6 from three, 71.4% TS and a +29 in 36 minutes. Tobias Harris matched him with 30 points on 11/18 (5/7 from three) for a 77.6% TS and +22 — a 30-9 line from the wing that Orlando never adjusted to. Jalen Duren added 15 points and 15 rebounds (6 offensive) on a +27, and Daniss Jenkins came off the bench for 16 on 4/5 from deep at a 90.1% TS.

Orlando lived on Paolo Banchero. He finished 38 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists on 14/25 from the field and 4/7 from three — a 66.6% TS line that produced a -18 in 39 minutes because the rest of the rotation collapsed around him. Jalen Suggs went 2/9 for 6 points (30.4% TS, -28). Wendell Carter Jr finished 13 points and 5 rebounds on a -27. Anthony Black's 5 steals masked a 4/12 night (40.0% TS). Orlando's biggest lead was 4.

Standings Impact

DET eliminated ORL 4-3, advances to Eastern Conference Semifinals vs CLE. Probability movement: 50%.

Fallout

Who gained, who lost

Victim: Orlando's secondary creation. Banchero's 38-9-6 line was the most efficient game of his postseason, but his teammates combined for 56 points on 17/50 (34.0%) shooting. Suggs at 30.4% TS as the second guard and Carter at -27 plus-minus through 28 minutes leave Orlando's offseason rotation question open before the No. 8 seed even unpacks.

Beneficiary: Cade Cunningham's franchise-cornerstone argument. A 32-12-1 Game 7 line, 4/6 from three, +29, in front of a home crowd as the No. 1 seed — that is the line teams build five-year contracts around. Detroit's 27.1 efficiency game score from him was the highest individual mark in the series.

Standings shift: Eastern Conference Semifinals bracket locked — DET (No. 1) draws CLE (No. 4) after Cleveland's 114-102 Game 7 over Toronto Sunday night. Detroit closed Orlando Sunday afternoon and gets Monday off; Cleveland gets a single travel day after a Sunday-night Game 7. Bravsen model: DET series win probability 61%. Probability basis: rest differential, DET No. 1 seed home-court, Cunningham–Duren on-ball edge vs Mitchell–Allen, Detroit 48.5% three-point profile in elimination scenarios, Cleveland 28.2% three-point variance.

Next Trigger: Game 1 ECSF, Tue May 5, 7:00 PM ET, Little Caesars Arena. If Cleveland's three-point line stays under 30%, Detroit's drop coverage on Mitchell turns Game 1 into a possession-by-possession slog and the series compresses fast. Tobias Harris' 5/7 from three is the spacing Cleveland did not face from Toronto.

Trigger: three_point_pct at DET 16/33 (48.5%) vs ORL 10/30 (33.3%).

Victim: Orlando Magic.

Beneficiary: Detroit Pistons.

Next Trigger: Game 1 ECSF Tue May 5 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena.

Published: May 5, 2026.