What Is xG in Football? Expected Goals Explained
xG (expected goals) is a metric that grades the quality of scoring chances: every shot gets a probability of becoming a goal from 0 to 1, and the sum of those probabilities over a match is a team's xG. A penalty is worth ≈ 0.76 xG, a shot from the centre of the box ≈ 0.1–0.4 xG, a long-range effort ≈ 0.02–0.05 xG.
How xG Is Calculated
The model is trained on hundreds of thousands of historical shots. For each new shot it weighs distance and angle to goal, body part (foot/header), attack type (open play, counter, set piece), and the positions of defenders and the goalkeeper. The output is the probability of a goal from that exact situation; the sum across all of a team's shots is its match xG. That is why "xG 2.3 — 0.4" reads as: one side created chances worth more than two goals, the other less than half a goal.
Reading Match xG: Three Scenarios
Score matches the xG — the result is earned: the stronger side created more and scored more. Score above xG — the team converted nearly everything it created: either a day of clinical finishing or a run of luck that rarely repeats. Score below xG — the team dominated on chances but left without points: the classic "xG robbery". The third scenario is the one that most often means the league table is lying about a team's real strength.
What xG Cannot Do
xG knows nothing about what did not happen: a brilliant pass that the striker never shot from does not enter the metric. It is unreliable over a single match — variance is strong there, so conclusions about team strength are safer over 5–10 games. And xG ignores game state: a side leading 3-0 deliberately stops creating, and its low second-half xG is not weakness.
xG and the Crime Index on Bravsen
Bravsen automatically compares every match's xG with the actual score and computes the Crime Index — a 0–100% measure of the contradiction. Above 60% the match is flagged as a statistical anomaly and gets a full breakdown: who was really stronger, where the game was decided and what the numbers say about both teams going forward. The methodology lives on the about page, all breakdowns are in the match review archive, and the latest ones are on the homepage.
FAQ
What does xG 1.5 mean?
xG 1.5 means the chances a team created would, on average, produce one and a half goals: replay the same set of shots many times and they yield about 1.5 goals per match. The actual score can be 0 or 3 — xG measures the quality of play, not a guaranteed outcome.
Can a team win with a lower xG?
Yes, and it happens regularly: an xG advantage shows who created better chances, but finishing decides the match. These contradictions are exactly what Bravsen tracks with the Crime Index — the more the scoreline contradicts the xG, the higher the anomaly score.
What is the difference between xG and xGA?
xG is expected goals created by a team (attack). xGA (expected goals against) is expected goals conceded at their own end (defence). The xG − xGA difference over a run of games is one of the most honest measures of team strength.
Where can I see xG for matches?
On Bravsen, both teams' xG is published in every match review together with full stats — shots, possession and the Crime Index. All breakdowns live in the match review archive; the latest ones are on the homepage.