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FIFA World Cup
FranceFrance
xG 3.17
3 : 0
SwedenSweden
xG 0.65

France — Sweden: No Mystery In The Margin

Case opened: 1 July 2026
📅 Match date: 30 June 2026
Bravsen Intelligence

The main finding is blunt: France were better in volume, quality, and territory, and the 3:0 score did not exaggerate a thing. Their xG reached 3.17 against Sweden’s 0.65, the gap stood at 2.52, and the anomaly label was plain enough — dominance, not deception.

The Ball Rarely Left Their Custody

Possession ran 61% to 39%, and France used it with cleaner circulation: 551 passes with 485 accurate, compared with Sweden’s 352 and 280. The attack followed the same script. France produced 25 shots to Sweden’s 8, landed 12 on target to Sweden’s 3, and generated 16 attempts from inside the box against 7. This was not a thriller; it was administrative control with studs on.

Sweden Survived Longer Than They Resisted

Sweden’s goalkeeper made 9 saves, while France’s made 3, which says enough about where most of the work was located. France also led corners 9 to 1 and blocked shots 4 to 1. Both teams finished with GoalsPrevented at 1.16, a tidy little coincidence in a match that otherwise had no appetite for balance.

Final Verdict

France converted at 0.95; Sweden converted at 0.00. Add in the foul count of 14 to 10 and offsides of 3 to 1, and the rest is background noise rather than evidence of drama. With a Crime Index of 48%, this file belongs in the low-risk drawer: the favourite arrived, took control, and left nothing for detectives except routine paperwork.

// MATCH STATISTICS
CRIME INDEX0%
France
xG 3.17
0:0
Sweden
xG 0.65
3.17Δ 2.52 xG gap0.65
61%
Ball Possession
39%
25
Total Shots
8
12
Shots on Target
3
4
Blocked Shots
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
9
9
Corner Kicks
1
14
Fouls
10
3
Offsides
1
551
Total Passes
352
485
Accurate Passes
280
LUCK FACTOR
×0.00
France
vs
×0.00
Sweden