BBRAVSENSports Impact Analysis

Anfield 0.51 xG Stalls Liverpool 1-1: CL Spot Still Open

Ryan Gravenberch curled in a 6th-minute opener, Enzo Fernández bent a 35th-minute free-kick past everyone, and Liverpool stalled to a 1-1 draw with caretaker-led Chelsea at Anfield. The Reds posted a 0.51 xG — their lowest in a Premier League home game since March 2021 (against Chelsea). Liverpool stay 4th but did not lock Champions League qualification; Chelsea snapped a six-match losing run and stay 9th. Two PL fixtures remain for both.

Evidence

Key numbers

65/ 100 impact
Final Score
LFC 1 – CFC 1
Premier League MD36 · Anfield · Sat May 9 2026 · 12:30 BST kickoff
Goals
Gravenberch 6'', Enzo Fernández 35''
LFC opener curled from outside the box; CFC equaliser via 35-yard free-kick
LFC xG
0.51
Lowest LFC home PL game since 0.28 vs CFC March 2021; lowest creative output of this season at home
Match Shots
14 total (LFC 8, CFC 6)
2nd-fewest in any PL match this season — only SUN-NEW December had fewer at 11
LFC Set-Piece Frailty
18 PL set-piece goals conceded
Only Bournemouth (19) have conceded more from set pieces in the PL this season
LFC Lead Drop at Home
9 PL points dropped from winning positions
Most LFC home points dropped from leads in a single season since 14 in 2015-16
CFC Streak Snap
6-match losing run ended
Avoided club record-equalling 7th straight defeat — would have matched 1952 record
Possession & Corners
LFC 49% / 5 corners
CFC 51% poss, 2 corners; CFC technical edge in slow-burn match
VAR Disallowed Goals
3 (Palmer, Jones, Gakpo)
Palmer drought extended to 12 games club + country; Curtis Jones header chalked off; Gakpo offside
CL Decider
LFC at Aston Villa Fri May 15 · 8:00 PM BST
LFC need win or favorable BOU result; goal-difference cushion to 6th remains thin

Why this page exists

This article tracks the measurable fallout from one result: who gained leverage, who absorbed pressure, and which next game can change the bracket or standings picture.

Analysis

This was Liverpool''s lowest-engagement home performance of the season: 0.51 xG, just 6 shots on goal frame, 5 corners, and 49% possession at home. The first 15 minutes accounted for the entirety of LFC''s attacking intent — Gravenberch''s curling strike from outside the box was only the 4th time this season Liverpool have scored in the opening quarter-hour of a league fixture. After Van Dijk volleyed wide from six yards, the home side retreated and let Chelsea back into a game they had not earned: Fernández''s 35th-minute free-kick from 35 yards curled past everyone for the equaliser. Liverpool dropped 9 points from winning positions in PL home games this season — the most at Anfield since 2015-16 (14). Set-piece concession: only Bournemouth (19) have shipped more PL set-piece goals than LFC (18) this season. The 14 total shots in the match (LFC 8, CFC 6 per Opta) were the second-fewest in a PL game this term; only Sunderland-Newcastle in December had fewer (11). Both teams had 2H goals disallowed by VAR — Cole Palmer for Chelsea (extending his goal drought to 12 games across club and country), Curtis Jones for Liverpool, Cody Gakpo also chalked off. Szoboszlai hit the post, Van Dijk hit the crossbar with a header. Chelsea racked up 4 yellow cards to Liverpool''s 2 in a chippy second half (17 fouls each). Mamardashvili kept LFC level with a sharp save on a second Fernández effort just before the break. Notable LFC absences: Wirtz (illness), Salah and Alisson not yet in training, Bradley/Endo/Ekitike/Leoni long-term.

The Fallout

What changed

Liverpool — dropped 2 points to a Chelsea side that had lost 6 in a row and was looking to avoid a club record-equalling 7th straight defeat (last 1952). Slot''s Anfield grip is slipping publicly: the Kop booed Ngumoha-for-Isak in the substitution window. A 0.51 xG against a side mid-protest is the structural read on a season in lull-mode after winning the title. Bracket Pressure: 4th place secured but Champions League not mathematically locked — LFC need a win in their final 2 (Aston Villa away Fri May 15, Brentford home Sun May 24) OR favorable Bournemouth results. Goal-difference cushion to 6th means a draw might suffice in some scenarios, but the buffer is now thin.

Chelsea — first PL point since March 4, six-match slide ended, club record-equalling 7th avoided. Caretaker McFarlane buys credibility ahead of the FA Cup Final vs Manchester City May 16.

6th-placed Bournemouth and 5th-placed teams now have a clearer window to chase if LFC slip again; Top-5 PL spot for England''s 5th UEFA coefficient CL berth still in play. Next Trigger: Bournemouth vs Fulham later Sat May 9 — if BOU win, LFC''s cushion compresses. LFC at Aston Villa Fri May 15 · 8:00 PM BST is the explicit Champions League decider.

⚡ Next Trigger

Liverpool at Aston Villa Fri May 15 · 8:00 PM BST — Champions League decider; Bournemouth-Fulham later Sat May 9 also moves the table

Sources and review

Sources checked: SportRadar / Opta / ESPN match report, SportRadar / Opta / ESPN, SportRadar, ESPN / Sky Sports, Opta, Sky Sports / ESPN, ESPN / Opta, Premier League schedule.

Read the editorial policy and methodology.