What Is Crime Index? Football Match Anomaly Score Explained
Updated: July 27, 2026
Crime Index (anomaly score) is Bravsen Intelligence\u2019s proprietary metric measuring how far a match\u2019s final scoreline diverges from what both teams\u2019 xG predicted. It\u2019s expressed as a 0-100 percentage: the higher the score, the more the result contradicts the underlying match statistics.
How Crime Index Is Calculated
The model takes both teams\u2019 xG and the final score, estimates how likely that result was given the xG gap, and converts the divergence between "expected" and "actual" into a 0-100% scale. A lopsided win matching a lopsided xG advantage scores low — the result was expected. A big scoreline against minimal xG, or a draw despite one team\u2019s clear dominance, scores high.
The Crime Index Scale
| Crime Index | What it means |
|---|---|
| 0-30% | the score matches the match stats, no anomaly |
| 30-60% | a noticeable but non-critical gap — finishing or bad luck for one side |
| 60-80% | a statistical anomaly — Bravsen publishes an investigation |
| 80-100% | an extreme mismatch between xG and the score, a rare case |
Bravsen\u2019s publication threshold is 60%: below that, a match is considered statistically ordinary even if the scoreline looks surprising at first glance.
Crime Index vs. xG
xG measures one team\u2019s chance quality in isolation. Crime Index is a derived, match-level metric: it compares both teams\u2019 xG against the actual result and answers not "who played better" but "how statistically unexpected is this result". A team dominating xG and still losing is exactly the case that pushes the index up.
Crime Index vs. Luck Factor
Luck Factor is a team\u2019s goals divided by its xG in a single match: 1.00 means finishing exactly matched chance quality, above 1.5 means the team scored well beyond what its chances were worth, below 0.5 means it created clear chances but failed to convert. Unlike Crime Index, which scores the whole match by comparing both teams at once, Luck Factor is a separate number per team, showing each side\u2019s individual finishing contribution to the overall imbalance.
Where to Find Crime Index
Crime Index is published in every match investigation alongside xG and full match stats. Team rankings by cumulative Crime Index live on the "Crime Index ranking" page inside each league hub. Full methodology is on the about page, every investigation is in the match archive, and the latest ones are on the homepage.
FAQ
What does a Crime Index of 60% or higher mean?
A Crime Index above 60% is the threshold at which Bravsen flags a match as a statistical anomaly: the actual result diverges significantly from what both teams’ xG predicted. Matches crossing this line automatically get a published investigation.
How is Crime Index different from xG?
xG is a raw metric measuring one team’s chance quality. Crime Index is a derived, match-level score: it compares both teams’ xG against the final result and expresses the gap as a 0-100 percentage. xG answers "who created more chances"; Crime Index answers "how much does the score contradict that".
Can Crime Index be low even with a lopsided scoreline?
Yes. A blowout score isn’t an anomaly by itself if it matches an equally lopsided xG advantage — a 4-0 win with 3.8-0.2 xG produces a low Crime Index, since the result was expected. The anomaly comes from the mismatch, not the scoreline size.
How does Crime Index relate to Luck Factor?
Luck Factor is a separate metric: a team’s goals divided by its xG in a given match (1.00 is neutral, above 1.5 means finishing significantly outperformed chance quality, below 0.5 means the team created chances but didn’t convert them). Crime Index scores the whole match; Luck Factor breaks that same imbalance down per team.
Which leagues get a Crime Index?
The score is calculated for every competition where the data provider returns xG for both teams. League-specific coverage details are on each league’s hub page.