Brasileirão Série A: table, results and fixtures
Season Anomaly Rating — Brazilian Série A
based on analysed matches — 14 cases on file| # | Team | Cases | Avg Crime | Robbed | Stole | Δ xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruzeiro | 1 | 90% | — | 1 | -0.63 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 2 | 87% | — | — | +1.00 |
| 3 | Coritiba | 1 | 82% | — | — | -0.06 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 1 | 75% | — | 1 | -0.12 |
| 5 | Vitoria | 3 | 68% | — | 1 | -2.14 |
| 6 | Flamengo | 2 | 66% | — | — | +2.20 |
| 7 | Vasco DA Gama | 2 | 65% | 1 | — | -0.62 |
| 8 | Mirassol | 3 | 62% | 1 | — | +0.24 |
| 9 | Santos | 3 | 61% | 2 | — | +1.15 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 1 | 51% | — | — | +0.90 |
| 11 | Bahia | 2 | 51% | — | — | -0.40 |
| 12 | Fluminense | 2 | 50% | — | — | +2.49 |
| 13 | RB Bragantino | 2 | 40% | — | — | -1.57 |
| 14 | Botafogo | 1 | 38% | — | 1 | -0.16 |
| 15 | Chapecoense-sc | 1 | 31% | — | — | -1.42 |
| 16 | Gremio | 1 | 17% | — | — | -0.86 |
The Brazilian Série A xG table: the biggest over- and underperformers of the season by expected goals.
"Robbed" — lost while winning the xG. "Stole" — won while losing the xG. greyed out — teams with a single case: not enough data to rank.
Most Anomalous Matches — Brazilian Série A
Bravsen Intelligence automatically monitors Brazilian Série A matches and publishes a risk report for every statistical anomaly. An investigation opens when a match's Crime Index exceeds 60% — indicating a significant divergence between team xG figures and the actual score. Total for Brazilian Série A published 14 investigations.
Flamengo Rout Mirassol 5:1 on a Pedro Brace in the Second Half
On expected goals (xG), the visitors' edge wasn't overwhelming — 2.40 against 1.15, the kind of gap that usually closes out as a two- or three-goal win. The scoreboard read 1:5, and per the Bravsen model, a final score like that at this xG split shows up in only about 11% of comparable matches. Five goals for the visitors against one in reply isn't just the better side winning — it's the rarer case where finishing diverges so far from the underlying chance quality that the eventual margin ends up twice as wide as the expected-goals gap alone would suggest.
19 August 2026
Santos Rout Vasco da Gama 3:0 With Three Goals in 13 Minutes
The hosts put together 19 shots, held 57% of possession, and dictated the opening half territorially — then walked off having lost 0:3. All three away goals landed inside a tight 13-minute window, between the 68th and 81st minutes. On expected goals (xG), the gap was far less dramatic than the final score, 1.91 to 1.04, and per the Bravsen model an outcome like this at that xG split shows up in only about 16% of comparable matches.
19 Aug
RB Bragantino 0:2 Corinthians: Corinthians Won the Numbers Argument Before the Break
Cruzeiro 3:1 Mirassol: A 27th-Minute Penalty Overrode the Expected-Goals Logic
Flamengo 2:0 Vitoria: One Shot on Target All Night for Vitoria
Fluminense vs Bahia 0:0 — Bahia's Goalkeeper Stole the Point
Ten Men, One Half, No Way Back — Vitoria vs Palmeiras 0:4
Coritiba vs Palmeiras 1:3: Mauricio Made Margins Matter
Bahia vs Chapecoense-SC 2:0 — A Penalty and a Defender's Goal Settled It in the First Half
Brazil's Série A is where technical football meets a merciless calendar and flights across half a continent. Form swings from round to round, which is precisely where a statistical model earns its value: it separates systemic level from one-night flashes.
Brazilian Série A Stats: xG For Every Match
Every Brazilian league game gets a full Bravsen Intelligence review: chances and their quality, possession, set pieces, discipline. The xG model shows what stands behind a result — control, a bounce, or a goalkeeping feat. Matches with a large gap between play and score receive an anomaly index and a separate report.
Brasileirão Match Reviews: Goals, Chances, Context
Brazil's top flight is generous with drama: comeback wins, humbled leaders, strings of 1:1 draws. The reviews above read each of those plots through numbers — goal minutes, chance conversion, head-to-head history and table positions. Brazilian football is emotional; our analytics give it back its precision.
Brazilian Série A History And Format
Brazil's national round-robin championship has run since 1971, and since 2003 has lived by the "20 clubs, 38 rounds" system inside a single calendar year — roughly April to December. Palmeiras hold the title record; the bottom four drop to Série B annually.
When is the Brasileirão season played?
Within one calendar year, in parallel with state championships and the Copa Libertadores — hence the famously overloaded calendar.
Why is Brazilian club form so volatile?
Rotation around the Libertadores, travel across time zones and mid-season sales of key players: the model regularly registers sharp swings in clubs' xG profiles from round to round.