Fluminense: match results and statistics

A goalless home draw with Bahia is Fluminense's single most anomalous covered match out of 2 reviewed, Crime Index 71%. A high figure attached to a scoreless match almost always signals a gap between the chance quality created and the blank scoreline that resulted.

A chronic xG shortfall explains the picture

Across the 4 matches with calculated xG, Fluminense generated 7.47 expected goals but scored only 5 — a shortfall of nearly 2.5 goals against the model, a notable under-conversion figure among Brasileirao clubs on this site. That systemic trait is likely what sits behind the goalless draw with Bahia: a club that regularly under-performs its xG will land in games where the pressure it generates doesn't translate into a goal.

The club's average Crime Index also runs above typical

Across the 2 reviewed matches, Fluminense averages 50% — right at the edge of the typical range for club football, with a clear tendency to climb as the xG shortfall accumulates: worth checking whether this pattern holds as more of the club's matches enter the database.