Mirassol vs Gremio 2:1 — Two First-Half Goals Held Off a Late Push

Mirassol beat Gremio 2-1, backing up their xG edge (1.38 to 0.52). The model rates this outcome as broadly expected (~58%) — both home goals came in the first half, and the visitors only pulled one back late on.

Bruno Santos and Edson Carioca scored before the break

Bruno Santos opened the scoring in the 16th minute, and Edson Carioca doubled the lead in the 40th — 2-0 at halftime gave the hosts a solid cushion.

Carlos Vinícius pulled one back for Gremio in the 77th, but they couldn't find a second.

Gremio coach Luis Castro made four changes at once at the break

At halftime Gremio made four substitutions in one go — Leonardo Pérez, Martin Braithwaite, Willian and Pedro Gabriel replaced Mathías Villasanti, Gabriel Mec, Francis Amuzu and Caio Paulista.

The mass reshuffle didn't help much: until the 77th minute, when the visitors' only goal finally arrived, Gremio's attack stayed largely toothless.

Gremio had more of the ball, but finishing let them down

With a 55-45 possession edge for the visitors, it was Mirassol who proved sharper: 14 home shots to Gremio's 9, and the conversion rate favored the hosts.

Gremio keeper Wéverton conceded twice against a relatively modest 14 shots from the opposition — an unusual case of the side with less possession being far more clinical.

Both sides lined up in a 4-3-3, but execution differed

Both Mirassol under Rafael Guanaes and Gremio under Luis Castro played a 4-3-3.

A tactical mirror image in which the deciding factor wasn't structure but individual execution: Edson Carioca and Bruno Santos converted their chances in the first half, while Gremio's attack only clicked once all match.

Mirassol's third straight win over Gremio

Mirassol have won all three of the last head-to-head meetings, including the most recent in September 2025 (1-0).

This 2-1 continues that run, even though the visitors held more of the ball on the day — a stat that should raise questions in Gremio's camp about finishing against a familiar rival.

Mirassol continues a strong run at home

A win over a traditional rival despite trailing in possession underlines the core strength of Rafael Guanaes's side this season — converting rare but precise chances. For Gremio, the result raises fresh questions about the attack: despite the mass reshuffle at halftime, Luis Castro's side created only one genuinely dangerous chance in the entire match, and it wasn't enough against a disciplined home defense.

The numbers back it up: over the season, Guanaes's side has repeatedly won through tight, low-scoring matches like this one rather than routs. The next round will show whether Gremio can fix their finishing problems. It's a clear item to fix in training this week.