MirassolMirassol
xG 1.38
2 : 1
GremioGremio
xG 0.52

Mirassol vs Gremio 2:1 — Two First-Half Goals Held Off a Late Push

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📅 Match date:
Bravsen Intelligence

Final score: Mirassol 2:1 Gremio — the match was played on 17 July 2026, Mirassol.

01 Match Stats

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// MATCH STATISTICS: MirassolGremio

RISK17%
Mirassol
xG 1.38
2:1
Gremio
xG 0.52
1.38Δ 0.86 xG gap0.52
45%
Ball Possession
55%
14
Total Shots
9
3
Shots on Target
4
2
Blocked Shots
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
5
Corner Kicks
4
14
Fouls
9
0
Offsides
1
1
Yellow Cards
3
340
Total Passes
445
273
Accurate Passes
371
LUCK FACTOR
×1.45
Mirassol
vs
×1.92
Gremio

Key Facts

Mirassol vs Gremio — 2:1 (Brasileirao Serie A). The win is backed by expected goals: xG 1.38 — 0.52. Match Crime Index — 17%: the scoreline matches the quality of play.

03 Lineups

Starting Lineups

Mirassol4-3-3
  • 22WalterG
  • 32Igor FormigaD
  • 34João VictorD
  • 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
  • 6ReinaldoD
  • 8DenilsonM
  • 21José AldoM
  • 5JapaM
  • 95Edson CariocaF
  • 30Bruno SantosF
  • 77AlessonF
Coach: Guanaes Rafael
Gremio4-3-3
  • 1WevertonG
  • 7Cristian PavónD
  • 6Gustavo MartinsD
  • 4Walter KannemannD
  • 38Caio PaulistaD
  • 5Juan NardoniM
  • 20Mathias VillasantiM
  • 37Gabriel MecM
  • 21TetêF
  • 95Carlos ViníciusF
  • 9Francis AmuzuF
Coach: Luis Castro

04 Breakdown

Mirassol led twice inside the first forty minutes and held on despite conceding more of the ball for most of the match, beating Gremio 2-1 in a result built on early efficiency rather than sustained control.

Bruno Santos opened the scoring in the 16th minute, and Edson Carioca doubled the lead in the 40th, giving Mirassol a two-goal cushion to defend against a Gremio side that would go on to hold 55 percent of the possession. Carlos Vinicius pulled one back in the 77th, but Mirassol's defense held firm for the remaining thirteen minutes plus stoppage time.

Mirassol's 1.38 xG Against Gremio's 0.52 Backs Up The Scoreline

Despite conceding more of the ball, Mirassol generated the better chances throughout — fourteen shots, ten from inside the box, against nine for Gremio. The expected-goals gap suggests this wasn't simply an early lead defended by luck, but one built on genuinely sharper attacking play in the moments that mattered.

Gremio's Halftime Overhaul Came Too Late To Change The Outcome

Gremio's coaching staff made four substitutions at once during the interval, a wholesale reshuffle aimed at addressing a two-goal deficit. The changes helped generate Vinicius's goal in the 77th minute, but by then Mirassol had already banked thirty-seven minutes of comfortable game management.

Three Yellow Cards For Gremio Reflect A Frustrating Chase

Walter Kannemann, Gustavo Martins and Luis Perez were all booked for Gremio as the visitors pushed to close the gap, against a single caution for Mirassol. The disciplinary gap fits a match where one side spent the second half chasing the game and the other spent it managing a lead.

Mirassol's Goalkeeper Made Three Saves To Gremio's One

The save count underlines who was doing the defending down the stretch — Mirassol's keeper had to work considerably harder than his Gremio counterpart, a natural consequence of protecting a scoreline rather than chasing one.

A Cluster Of Late Changes From Mirassol Protected The Lead

Mirassol made three substitutions between the 72nd and 83rd minutes, bringing on fresh legs specifically to run down the clock and maintain defensive shape once Gremio's press intensified following Vinicius's goal.

For Gremio, generating more possession and pulling a goal back late doesn't change the fact that Mirassol were the sharper side in the moments that decided the match. For Mirassol, two early goals and a well-managed second half are exactly the kind of result that validates taking your chances when they arrive rather than waiting for territorial control to translate into goals.

Corners Split Evenly Despite The Gap In Possession

Both sides finished with a similar corner count despite Gremio's territorial edge, one more indication that the visitors' extra share of the ball never translated into the kind of sustained final-third pressure that usually produces set-piece chances.

Fouls Leaned Toward Mirassol As The Home Side Defended Its Lead

Mirassol committed fourteen fouls to Gremio's nine, a natural consequence of a team spending large stretches of the second half breaking up Gremio's attacks rather than building their own. It's the kind of foul count that reflects game management rather than indiscipline. Gremio's own goalkeeper made just a single save all match, a modest workload that reflects how much of Mirassol's early threat came from clinical finishing rather than sustained volume of shots on target. That efficiency, more than the possession numbers on either side, is the real story of how a two-goal cushion built inside forty minutes held up against a determined second-half push.