Espanyol 1-2 Real Madrid: winning on 0.26 xG

Real Madrid left Cornella with three points, 65% of the ball and 242 passes. They also left with 0.26 xG, which is about as little as a winning side can create in ninety minutes. Espanyol, with a third of the possession, finished on 0.48. The scoreline and the underlying numbers point in opposite directions here, and the second reading is the more useful one.

Two moments, not ninety minutes of control

Jude Bellingham opened the scoring in the ninth minute, before Espanyol had properly settled into the compact 4-4-2 Manolo Gonzalez had set up. Alex Calatrava levelled on the half hour, and from there the game drifted towards a draw that would have reflected the play more honestly than the final score did.

The winner came from a substitute who had been on the pitch for ten minutes. Mourinho withdrew Bellingham on eighty and sent on Carles Espi, and it was Espi who made it 1-2 in the ninetieth. Both Real goals belong to the man who scored first and the man who replaced him.

The losing side created more

A team with a third of the ball beating its opponent on expected goals by almost double is not a common sight in La Liga. Espanyol managed five shots to Real's six, so this was not about volume - it was about where the shots came from. Two of the hosts' attempts came inside the box and three from outside it, and that was enough to finish ahead on chance value.

Possession that never became shots

Real's passing looks immaculate on paper: 242 passes at close to 95% accuracy, against 129 and roughly 87% for Espanyol. The visitors touched the ball twice as often and barely misplaced it. All of that control produced six shots - roughly one attempt per forty passes.

That gap between holding the ball and threatening with it is the real story of the night. Mourinho's side circulated comfortably in midfield, then ran into a packed block at the edge of the box with no obvious way through. Espanyol's seven fouls to Real's one fill in the rest of the picture: the hosts broke play up when they had to, but did it in areas where it cost them nothing.

Real shot rarely and hit the target almost every time

Five of six attempts were on target, in a game where roughly half is the usual rate. Real did not waste efforts - when they shot, they shot from somewhere they were more likely to score than miss, with five attempts inside the box against one from distance. Marko Dmitrovic made three saves and kept out everything but two, which at that accuracy is what held Espanyol in the match until the final minute.

Mourinho reshuffled twice, Espanyol once

The first double change came on sixty-four: Cucurella for Carreras, Diomande for Guler. Espanyol answered almost immediately on sixty-six with Drkusic and Bauza, and notably Gonzalez took off Calatrava, his own goalscorer. By eighty Mourinho had refreshed three more positions at once, Espi among them.

The pair of bookings on thirty-two is worth a note too - Calatrava and Vinicius Junior went into the book together. That was the only point in the match where both sides lost their composure at the same time, and with Real committing a single foul across ninety minutes, the calm elsewhere is no surprise.

What the result means for both sides

Two rounds in, one goal of difference separates them: Espanyol sit third, Real fifth, level on points. The match confirmed that more precisely than the scoreline did, because no gap in quality was visible on the pitch. Real have won three of the last four meetings, including a 0-2 in May, but none of those wins was this narrow underneath.

For Espanyol the read is encouraging. The game plan held, the block held, and they created more than the opponent; what was missing was a finish and one minute of concentration at the end. For Real the signal runs the other way and matters more. Three points arrived on almost no creation, and that route will not work against a side that converts its 0.48. The win protected their league position without showing how this team intends to break down a deep block over a full season.