The numbers backed the 2:0 scoreline, and that is usually bad news for anyone hoping to find a conspiracy. Mexico finished with 1.02 xG against Ecuador’s 0.73, a modest but clear edge, and the match landed at a Crime Index of 45%. Nothing exotic here: the better side did enough, then left the scene tidy.
The key finding: Germany owned 61% of the ball and made 592 passes, yet produced only 0.65 xG — barely half of Ecuador’s 1.27.