Norway had the better chances and took the win, which is about as suspicious as finding rain in a cloud. Their 2.02 xG to 1.36 edge over Ivory Coast came with a 2:1 scoreline that matched the evidence rather than insulting it. Crime Index: 45%. In other words, the file stays thin.
This one is not a mystery so much as a tidy little professional job. Ivory Coast won 2-0 and posted 2.26 xG to Curaçao’s 1.39, a gap of 0.87. That margin says the favorite did create the superior shot portfolio, but not by the kind of distance a clean 2-0 scoreline usually tries to impersonate in public. The scoreboard wore a tuxedo; the underlying numbers came in with blood on the cuffs.