Türkiye national football team: results and stats
3 investigationsLatest Turkiye national team football matches: every report comes with full stats, xG analysis and the Crime Index of the result.
Türkiye vs Paraguay 0:1 — 32 Shots and a Man Down Weren't Enough for the Hosts
Türkiye lost 0-1 to Paraguay despite a massive xG edge — 2.17 to 0.32.
Türkiye vs USA 3:2 — The Value Of Three Accurate Shots
3.21 xG belonged to Türkiye, the sharpest number in this 3:2. Against the Bravsen archive of 51 reviewed matches, a 45% anomaly score ranks higher than only 29% of fixtures, placing this result in a familiar tournament pattern: the side with the better chances collected the return.
Australia vs Türkiye 2-0 — Hosts Win Despite 30 Shots Against
Australia beat Türkiye 2-0 while surviving 30 shots from their opponent — one of the group stage's most unusual matches by stats-to-result ratio.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often do Turkiye's match results diverge from the xG-expected outcome?
Bravsen has analyzed 3 matches — average Crime Index 71, with 2 scoring 60+ (the threshold for an anomalous gap between the result and the xG model).
A 0-1 home loss to Paraguay carries a Crime Index of 92% — one of the highest figures on the entire site. It's Türkiye's single most anomalous covered match out of 3 reviewed — the same match also shows up as Paraguay's own peak anomaly, but from the opposite side: there the visitors won against the statistical run of play, here the hosts lost despite a clear edge in chance quality.
A large xG shortfall explains the anomaly
Across the 3 matches with calculated xG, Türkiye generated 6.74 expected goals but scored only 3 — a shortfall of more than 3.5 goals against the model, one of the largest under-conversion figures among any national team on this site. It's a systemic trait across the entire available sample.
The single loss is a sharp example of a broader problem
A team under-performing its xG this systematically will regularly land in results exactly like this one, where the real quality of play diverges sharply from the scoreline — the Paraguay loss isn't statistical noise, it's the logical consequence of a chronic finishing problem for the national team.