England vs Croatia 4:2 — A Kane Brace and Four Goals in a Wild First-Half Stretch

England scored four goals from an expected-goals total of 3.2, which sounds like a routine correlation until you notice Croatia matched them for possession and still finished with an xG reading of just 0.7 — a gap that explains a 4-2 scoreline built on chance quality more than chance quantity.

Harry Kane opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 12th minute and added a second in the 42nd, either side of Martin Baturina's equalizer in the 36th. Petar Musa pulled Croatia level again right on the stroke of halftime, but Jude Bellingham restored England's lead two minutes into the second half, and Marcus Rashford's 85th-minute strike put the result beyond doubt.

Twenty-Two Shots To Ten, With Twenty From Inside The Box For England

England's shot profile — twenty-two attempts, twenty of them from inside the penalty area — shows an attack that spent the match working the ball into dangerous positions rather than settling for shots from distance. Croatia's ten attempts, only four from inside the box, tell the opposite story.

Croatia's Goalkeeper Faced Seven Shots On Target To England's Three

Despite conceding four, Croatia's goalkeeper actually faced more work than his counterpart — seven saves attempted against three for England's keeper. That split shows Croatia created enough genuine second-half pressure to keep the match from becoming a rout, even as the scoreline pulled away.

Four Goals Arrived In A Twenty-Three-Minute Window

From Baturina's 36th-minute equalizer to Bellingham's 47th-minute go-ahead goal, four of the match's six goals came inside a stretch either side of halftime — the kind of concentrated scoring burst that turns a comfortable lead into a genuine contest and back again within the space of a single half.

Possession Split Nearly Even, Shot Quality Wasn't

At 52-48 in England's favor, the possession numbers suggest a competitive match. The shot quality numbers say otherwise: an xG gap of more than two goals shows England were creating substantially better chances even during the spells when Croatia had the ball.

Croatia's Late Substitutions Chased A Game Already Slipping Away

Zlatko Dalic made three changes in the 66th and 78th minutes, including bringing on Andrej Kramaric, searching for a way back into a match his side had already matched for possession but not for finishing. None of the changes produced a third Croatian goal.

For England, four goals and a comfortable-looking scoreline mask a match that stayed genuinely open until Bellingham's goal settled things early in the second half. For Croatia, matching England for possession while conceding four is a reminder that territory and chance quality are two different currencies — and this match was decided almost entirely by the second one.

A Match That Rewarded Precision Over Territory

Take away the possession column entirely and this reads like a comfortable England win built on cutting edge rather than control — twenty shots from inside the box, eleven on target, and four different scorers across ninety minutes. Croatia's resistance in the final third, seven saves forced from England's shooters, kept the final margin from ballooning further, but the underlying gap in finishing quality was never in serious doubt after Kane's early penalty set the tone. Eight corners for the hosts against two for the visitors adds one final layer to a match England controlled almost everywhere except the scoreline for a brief stretch either side of halftime.