England vs Croatia 4:2 — A Kane Brace and Four Goals in a Wild First-Half Stretch

England beat Croatia 4-2, backing up a massive xG edge (3.2 to 0.7). The model rates this outcome as one of the more likely scenarios (~52%) — though the actual match played out far more dramatically than the numbers suggested.

Four goals between the 12th and 45th minutes

Harry Kane opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 12th. Marko Baturina equalized for Croatia in the 36th, but Kane restored the lead almost immediately in the 42nd — his second of the match.

Petar Musa leveled again for Croatia right before the break, in the 45th — 2-2 at halftime after a chaotic 33-minute stretch. Jude Bellingham put England back ahead in the 47th, right after the restart, and Marcus Rashford sealed it in the 85th.

22 shots to 10 — England dominated by volume

The hosts fired 22 shots (11 on target) to Croatia's 10, holding 52% possession.

Croatian keeper Dominik Livaković made 7 saves, keeping the scoreline from getting even more lopsided.

England cements first place in Group L

England already led Group L with 6 points before kickoff, Croatia second.

The win pushed England's goal difference to +4, confirming their status as the group's top favorite.

Kane's brace proved decisive amid a chaotic stretch

Both of England's captain's goals came in the first half, including the penalty, and they turned out to be the difference in the final score.

Even as Croatia twice restored parity, Kane's brace was the forward's decisive contribution to the match's most eventful stretch.

Croatia leveled twice but couldn't sustain the tempo

Marko Baturina and Petar Musa brought Croatia back into the match twice within 9 minutes of play.

An impressive response from Zlatko Dalić's side that, however, couldn't be carried into the second half, when Bellingham and Rashford struck twice more.

Livaković spared his side an even heavier defeat

7 saves from the Croatian keeper against 22 opposition shots is a stat that explains why the final margin wasn't even more lopsided.

Without his interventions, the score could easily have finished 6-2 or worse given the volume England created.

England show the strongest argument for group-favorite status

The ability to score across different phases of a match — from the spot, from open play, right after the restart.

And late on — points to the range of attacking resources in Thomas Tuchel's squad, making England one of the strongest contenders to top Group L.

Croatia remain a dangerous side even in defeat

5 shots on target from the visitors is a respectable number for a team that lost 2-4, confirming Croatia's attack can create chances even against one of the strongest defenses in the group stage.

That's an important signal for Croatia's future opponents at the tournament.