3.54. That was Senegal’s xG, against 1.8 for Belgium, a gap of 1.74 and the real shape of the night. The obvious take will point at the score and nod sagely, as if football were a tidy little board game where the player with more pieces always wins by move 90. It was not that sort of evening. The shot count sat level at 19 each, shots on target were 5 apiece, and possession barely leaned either way at 52 % to 48 %. Yet Senegal kept finding the more valuable squares, scoring at 25' through H. Diarra and again at 51' through I. Sarr, which should have given them command rather than merely a lead.
A 5:0 scoreline is not a twist here — it is arithmetic. Senegal's 3.1 xG against Iraq's 0.18, backed by 28 shots to 6, predicted a rout, and the rout arrived on schedule.