Haiti vs Scotland 0-1 — An Even Match Decided by One Goal

Scotland beat Haiti 1-0 in a match where the expected-goals numbers came out perfectly identical for both sides — 1.05 to 1.05 — making this one of the most statistically even matches of the entire group stage.

With a balance like that, it was conversion of the one genuinely clear-cut chance that decided the game — Haiti out-shot the visitors 15 to 9, but it was Scotland who proved sharper at the decisive moment.

An exact xG tie is rare even at this level of football

A match between the expected-goals numbers to two decimal places is a statistical rarity even at the World Cup group stage.

Where teams usually show at least a small edge one way or the other in the quality of chances created.

Haiti created more but couldn't convert

15 shots for the hosts against 9 for the visitors — yet both sides matched exactly on shots on target, 2 apiece.

That reading underlines that the issue wasn't the volume created, but the specific moment that decided the match in Scotland's favor.

44 combined fouls — a tough, physical contest

21 fouls for the visitors against 23 for the hosts — the numbers reflect an intense.

Physical battle in which both sides fought for every ball across all 90 minutes of play.

Three yellow cards for Scotland — the cost of the physical battle

The visitors picked up three bookings during the match against just one for the hosts.

A stat that confirms Scotland's win was earned not just through quality but through a willingness to fight for every contested ball against a side that created more chances.

A goals-prevented reading of 0.22 for both sides

A small positive goals-prevented figure for both teams suggests the overall result broadly matched what the model expected.

A rare case of the underlying numbers and the final scoreboard nearly aligning perfectly.

A tight battle inside both penalty boxes

8 shots from inside the box for each team — the numbers confirm both sides created their chances predominantly close to goal rather than from distance.

Pointing to a broadly similar tactical approach from both national teams in this match.

The group stage remains open for both sides

For Haiti, playing at a tournament of this size for the first time, a narrow defeat with identical xG isn't a disaster — the team showed it can create chances against a much higher-ranked opponent. Scotland, meanwhile, leaves with the three points needed to keep their own group-stage hopes alive.

That's football — sometimes it's not the volume that decides it, but a single sharp finish at the right moment. It just fell that way on the night. Nothing more complicated than that, really — just one clean finish on a night when both sides deserved better than a single-goal margin.